The Pacific Surfliner rail line, a key transportation artery connecting Orange County to San Diego, faces significant threats from ongoing coastal erosion, with conditions predicted to worsen due to an intense El Niño winter. Officials state that the picturesque route, which runs directly along the Pacific Ocean, is increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather events.
Disruptions have already impacted service. This summer, heavy waves and erosion led to multi-day closures of the rail line. Last year, the line experienced a month-long closure for repairs aimed at protecting against landslides. More recently, in July, rides were canceled due to washout risks, followed by emergency repairs necessitated by high surf in August. Earlier this month, a half-dozen trains between San Diego and Los Angeles were canceled. Shirley Moreno, a SeaWorld San Diego employee who uses the Surfliner regularly, noted the inconvenience, stating, “It’s been a pain in the butt with the delays.” Julian Brannon, a 19-year-old student from Los Angeles who commutes to San Diego State, described significant disruptions in August, where he experienced a three-hour delay before resorting to a more expensive Uber ride.
The underlying cause of these challenges is slowly rising seas attributed to human-caused climate change, which contributes to coastal erosion. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center has indicated a 97% chance of a “strong” or “very strong” El Niño over a three-month period concluding in December, suggesting an increased risk of severe weather conditions.
The Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) manages the land beneath a 40-mile segment of the Surfliner’s route. Derrell Johnson, Chief Executive of OCTA, highlighted the urgency of the situation, remarking, "There’s a race with Mother Nature in terms of trying to protect the line.” Johnson noted that while the rail line has existed since the 1880s, the last five years have seen an unprecedented level of impact. Two years ago, OCTA identified four “hot spots of significant concern” along the coast requiring improvements. The agency successfully secured $308 million in state and federal emergency funding to commence these protective measures.
However, the implementation of these critical projects faces delays. OCTA has not yet secured all necessary permits from the California Coastal Commission, the California State Lands Commission, and the Army Corps of Engineers. Johnson indicated that work initially projected to be completed in two years now appears to be at least another year and a half away. While OCTA is responsible for maintaining buffers like sand and boulders along its 40-mile stretch, a specific seven-mile segment in San Clemente is considered particularly vulnerable and “high risk,” with much of the focus this summer directed there.
The California Coastal Commission has observed an increase in permit activity related to coastal protection. Karl Schwing, San Diego Coast District Deputy Director for the state Coastal Commission, reported an uptick in emergency permit requests over the past month, attributing it to hurricane-induced storms and high tides. Shannon Vaughn, Coastal Program Manager for the California Coastal Commission, reinforced this perspective, stating that “There’s development in these areas that are subject to wave action and high tide events. With the increase in erosion, it then increases potential damage.” These observations underscore the ongoing challenges posed by sea-level rise.
For passengers like Brannon, who relies on the Surfliner as an affordable alternative to driving due to rising gas prices and car ownership costs, sustained closures or delays would necessitate alternative, potentially more expensive, transportation methods such as cars or buses. The extended timeline for securing permits means that the rail line will likely remain exposed to significant environmental threats through the predicted intense El Niño winter and beyond.
